The Chinese milk market has unexpectedly become surplus. This was reported on his Telegram channel by dairy industry analyst and founder of DairyNews.today, Mikhail Mishchenko, who relocated from russia to Kazakhstan after the start of russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
According to him, Chinese companies have already begun exporting milk powder to foreign markets — a scenario that seemed unlikely just a few years ago. Traditionally, China was considered one of the world’s largest importers of dairy products, and any changes in demand in China significantly affected price conditions in New Zealand, the EU, and the United States.
The current shift in the balance is the result of several factors. Among the key ones are rapid growth in domestic milk production, consolidation and industrialization of farms, and a slowdown in domestic consumption. Additional pressure comes from declining margins on the domestic market, which encourages producers to seek external sales channels. As a result, a surplus of raw materials has formed on the market, particularly milk powder.
The analyst emphasizes that the emergence of China as an exporter of dairy products is an important development for the global market. It means increased competition in the markets of Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, additional pressure on global prices, as well as new risks and opportunities for traditional exporters from the EU, Oceania, and Central Asia.
Thus, China will increasingly influence the global dairy market not only as a major buyer but also as a seller. This increases market volatility and strengthens its strategic nature, requiring close attention from all industry participants.
