According to Leonid Tulush, head of the analytical service of the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine, global dairy markets experienced a significant decline in prices during the second half of 2025. This trend led to lower farmgate prices for raw milk in many countries and eventually affected Ukraine as well, although the price decline there began later than in most other regions.

Global Milk Prices Fell Sharply

The steepest declines in raw milk prices occurred in countries with a strong export orientation in the dairy sector.

Key examples include:

  • FrieslandCampina (Netherlands) and Arla Foods reduced milk procurement prices by more than 30% between August 2025 and February 2026.
  • In Germany, milk prices declined by more than 25% during the same period.
  • In Brazil, prices dropped nearly 25% in the second half of 2025.
  • In the United States, the average milk price across all classes fell almost 20% between July 2025 and January 2026, with Class III and Class IV milk prices declining more rapidly.

The smallest decline was observed in New Zealand, where prices decreased by around 16% during the second half of 2025, with signs of stabilization appearing already in December.

Price Decline Reached Ukraine Later

In Ukraine, the drop in raw milk procurement prices began only in November 2025 and continued at least through February 2026.

As a result, the average farmgate price in February 2026 was about 15% lower than in July 2025. When calculated in euros, the decline was even more pronounced—around 19%, partly due to the depreciation of the national currency.

Oversupply as the Key Driver

According to Tulush, falling raw milk prices reflect a global cyclical pattern in dairy markets, which periodically experience phases of oversupply.

The excess supply of milk on global markets became the main factor behind the price decline observed in the second half of 2025.

Ukraine Increasingly Influenced by Global Markets

The expert also notes that Ukraine’s dairy sector has become much more integrated into international trade in recent years.

On the one hand, the country has increased exports of dairy products. On the other, imports have also expanded, making the domestic market more sensitive to global price movements.

As a result, changes in international dairy prices are quickly transmitted to Ukraine’s domestic raw milk market.

Consumers Benefit from Lower Prices

After a period of significant price increases for milk and dairy products in late 2024 and early 2025, Ukrainian consumers have recently gained access to more affordable dairy products.

This trend is particularly noticeable through retail promotions, which have become more frequent.

According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, producer prices for butter in January 2026 were about 3% lower than in January 2025.

Export Growth Could Stabilize the Market

Tulush believes that Ukraine’s current competitive raw milk prices could stimulate an increase in dairy exports in the near future.

If export volumes begin to grow significantly, this could push farmgate milk prices upward, helping stabilize the market.

In such a scenario, the government may not need to introduce emergency support measures for the dairy sector, as market mechanisms could gradually restore balance.

Source: Leonid Tulush, Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine.