Ukraine has effectively shifted from a net exporter of dairy products to a net importer, as its trade balance turned negative.
The Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine (UDEU) has analysed foreign trade in dairy products for January–August 2026. Total dairy trade reached $424.1 million, just 0.8% above the same period of 2025 ($420.6 million) — but behind the near-flat total lies a fundamental change in structure: imports rose sharply as exports fell substantially.
Exports −20.5%, imports +24.7%
Dairy exports in January–August 2026 were $176.9 million, down 20.5% year on year ($222.3 million). In volume terms, fermented dairy (+28%), whey (+1.1%) and cheese (+0.9%) grew, while butter halved and dried/condensed milk fell 7%. Imports rose to $247.2 million, up 24.7% ($198.3 million a year earlier), with the biggest volume gains in drinking milk and cream (3.7x), butter (2.6x), whey (1.7x), cheese (+26%) and fermented dairy (+17%).
Balance and structure
The trade balance turned negative at −$70.3 million (versus +$24.1 million a year earlier), and the export-to-import ratio fell to 0.72 from 1.12 — so each dollar of exports is now matched by nearly $1.5 of imports.
Export structure shifted in August: dried/condensed milk (HS 0402) rose from 24% to 37% and whey (0404) from 5% to 11%, while butter (0405) fell from 36% to 15%. On imports, cheese (0406) eased from 82.3% to 76.9%, while milk and cream (0401), whey (0404) and butter (0405) all rose — so imports, once almost entirely cheese, are diversifying into categories that compete directly with Ukrainian processors.
Source: Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine (press release, 2 September 2026)
