Polish milk producers are facing a difficult situation in early 2026: prices have fallen 19.5% year-on-year. As Agro Profil reports, the reasons lie in global overproduction, trade blockades and falling demand from Asia.
In April, the average purchase price in Poland dropped to PLN 1.83 per litre net (PLN 182.64/hl) — down 19.5% year-on-year. The drop is sharper than for other agricultural products (average -13.1% YoY), and regional price differences within Poland reach nearly PLN 0.30 per litre. The highest prices are in Podlaskie (PLN 1.96/litre), the lowest in Łódź (PLN 1.68/litre) and Pomerania (PLN 1.71/litre). A price recovery is not expected before the second half of the year.
At EU level, Q1 2026 milk procurement rose 3.6% year-on-year to 36.7 million tonnes, with notable gains in Germany (+7%), Italy (+7%), the Netherlands (+6%) and France (+5%). However, trade was disrupted by Middle East conflicts and the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which cut Europe off from key buyers and sharply raised shipping costs to Asia. China additionally tightened imports of European cheeses and cream. The average EU price fell to €43.07/100kg in March (-19% Year-over-Year).
Globally, Q1 2026 production among leading exporters rose 4.1% Year-over-Year, led by Argentina (+9.4%), Uruguay (+8.4%) and New Zealand (+5.5%). USDA forecasts full-year 2026 world cow milk production at 565.4 million tonnes (+0.7%), despite a 1.3% fall in the global cow herd. India leads with 32% of world output, followed by the EU (22%) and the US (16%).
Product-level price movements in Q1 2026 (USD/tonne): Butter EU: 5,059 (-37% YoY) — cheapest in the world. SMP EU: 3,000 (+10% YoY). WMP EU: 3,926 (-17% YoY). Cheddar EU: 3,768 (-26% YoY). Whey EU: +11% QoQ, +13% YoY — driven by demand for sports nutrition and medical applications in ageing societies.
The outlook for H2 2026: winners will be those who can redirect sales quickly. Bulk commodity products (block butter, commodity cheese) are becoming less profitable. Poland and the EU’s opportunity lies in higher-value ingredients — specialised whey proteins and isolates — where global demand continues to grow.
Source: Agro Profil
