The reinstatement of tariff quotas under the EU–Ukraine DCFTA and a sharp fall in EU dairy prices have driven a significant decline in the EU’s share of Ukrainian dairy exports. As Leonid Tulush reports on Facebook, butter and skim milk powder have been hit hardest.
From 6 June 2025, the EU reinstated the terms of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with Ukraine, ending the duty-free regime and reintroducing tariff quotas on dozens of product groups, including certain dairy products — milk powder, condensed milk and butter.
Comparing Ukrainian dairy exports to the EU in January–May 2025 and 2026 reveals a stark contrast for quota-covered products. The EU’s share of total Ukrainian SMP exports fell from over 71% to 36% (halved); for butter, from 55% to 13% (down 4.3x). By contrast, the EU share for non-quota products — whey and fresh cheeses — barely changed. Whey’s EU share even rose from 37.5% to 40.7%; fresh cheese held above 26%.
The DCFTA reinstatement partially explains this, but pricing is equally important: EU butter prices in May 2026 were only 55% of May 2025 levels. Ukraine’s utilisation of its EU dairy quotas in H1 2026 also tells a story — 70% for SMP, but only around 25% for butter. The low butter utilisation reflects a complex licensing mechanism, including a deposit requirement to financially guarantee shipments.
Are there prospects for a recovery in Ukrainian dairy exports to the EU in H2 2026? No significant preconditions are visible at this stage.
Source: Leonid Tulush (Facebook)
