The Expert and Analytical Service of the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine (UDEU) reports that at Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction 414, the 20th auction of 2026, the overall GDT index rose by 2.5% to $4,020/t — the biggest increase since March.
Trading volumes were again high at 42,100 t, the sixth consecutive auction above 41,000 t. The index value (1.208) recovered to its early-June level.
Price trends for individual products were once again mixed (€/$ = 1.1225):
- Butter — −0.4%, to $4,720/t (€4,210/t);
- Anhydrous milk fat — −3.4%, to $5,490/t (€4,890/t);
- Cheddar — −7.4%, to $3,650/t (€3,250/t);
- Mozzarella — +1.3%, to $3,880/t (€3,460/t);
- Skim milk powder (SMP) — +3.4%, to $3,980/t (€3,540/t);
- Whole milk powder (WMP) — +4.4%, to $3,760/t (€3,350/t).
Dairy fat price trends
Butter prices have fallen for nine auctions in a row, losing $1,000, or 17.7%, over that period.
At the current exchange rate, the GDT butter price ($4,720 / €4,210) is well above the European Union (EU) level: €4,200 on GDT versus an average of €3,900 in Western Europe.
The last time GDT butter prices (in $) were at this level was in September 2023, three years ago.
The milk fat-to-butter price ratio fell again, to 1.163.
A recovery in butter and milk fat prices is most likely still some way off.
Milk powder price trends
The SMP price rose significantly at auction 414 (+3.4%), to $3,980 / €3,540, especially notable given the weak euro. Over the last seven auctions (since early July), SMP has risen by 26.8% in dollar terms, or $840.
The GDT SMP price rose in step with SMP prices in the EU: €3,540 on GDT versus an average of €3,550 in Western Europe — effectively identical. GDT SMP prices were last this high almost four and a half years ago, in May 2022.
SMP has now been priced above WMP for the fourth auction in a row (by 5.7%). The last time this happened was more than four years ago, in August 2022, and then only once.
This unusual price inversion, now in its fourth month, shows that demand for skim milk solids and milk protein remains stronger relative to available supply than demand for full milk solids.
Further milk powder price movements on GDT will depend, among other things, on the course of El Niño, which this year could become the strongest on record.
Cheese price trends
Cheese prices at GDT auction 414 moved in different directions. After a sharp recovery at auction 412 (+16.5%), Cheddar fell again, to $3,650 / €3,250. Over the last two (October) GDT auctions alone, Cheddar has dropped by 10.5% (−$430), returning to low levels.
The GDT Cheddar price now stands at €3,250, matching the €3,250 Western European average — so, as with SMP, GDT and Western European Cheddar prices are practically the same.
Mozzarella rose this time (+1.3%), to $3,880 / €3,460, again overtaking Cheddar by 6.4%, whereas Cheddar had been higher at the two previous auctions.
Price volatility in the GDT cheese segment indicates that cheese prices are currently driven mainly by the availability of specific types and short-term purchasing needs.
Source: Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine (UDEU Analytics)
